How often does a ‘Hundred Year Event’ happen?
by Peter Binose
According to Harlequin’s Solicitors, it only happens once in a hundred years.
They said that the World Bank are sending a report in which Christmas floods will be described as a hundred year flood.
Obviously Harlequin do not know what a ‘100 year flood’ actually means.
We need to be aware of a 1 in 100 year event does not mean the probabilities will only happen once in every hundred years. It actually means that it is an event that will happen once in every 100 big cloud bursts or storms. If you had a hundred of those in a day, there are probabilities that such flooding will occur. If it happens in a week, then once a week, if it happens in a year once a year etc. In fact what it means there is a 1% probability of it happening. See here.
There is approximately a 63.4% chance of one or more 100-year floods occurring in any 100-year period.
That means folks, 63 floods in a hundred years, more than one every two years.
“That Buccament Bay Resort is built in a flood plain is a physical fact. There can be no debate.”
Flood years for Buccament
(br)=brush (ts)=Tropical Storm (bd)=Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast.
1742, 1780, 1886×2, 1814, 1815, 1876tsbr, 1886ts, 1886, 1887-4ts, 1888ts, 1891ts, 1894br, 1895ts, 1896ts, 1898, 1898ts, 1901ts, 1901tsbr, 1905tsbr, 1916ts, 1918tsbr, 1921, 1928ts, 1933-2tsbr, 1943tsbr, 1944-2ts, 1949ts, 1951br, 1954,1955br, 1960br, 1967tsbr, 1980, 1986tsbr, 1987ts, 1994tsbr, 2001 -2ts, 2002ts, 2003ts, 2004br, 2007br, 2010, 2012ts, 2013.
How often is area recorded as affected, brushed or hit: every 2.20 years
Hurricane frequency to directly hit the area: once every 15.50 years (6h)
Average wind speed of hurricane hits: 102 mph
Last affected by depression and rain storm: December 24th/25th, 2013 Tropical trough.
- 1742, May 7th, Bequia: A strong earthquake or seaquake was felt followed by a tsunami 6’ wave in Saint Vincent.
- 1780, October 10th: Tremendous Hurricane recorded. Hurricane causes wide-spread devastation. Many houses in Kingstown destroyed. The Kingstown church was also destroyed by the hurricane. The church was rebuilt in brick and opened for service in 1820. Two French frigates were sunk and destroyed. The storm raged from the 10th to the 14th of October 1780. St.Vincent; loss of life to all islands estimated at 22,000. Martinique also experienced a serious earthquake with, 9000 lives lost. Quake was felt in Saint Vincent. The Leeward Coast the first settled area of the French Planters, at this time Barouallie was the principal town of the Island. The church built at Barouallie by the French was destroyed by the hurricane of this year. Also the chapel built by the French near Chatteaubelair was also destroyed by the same hurricane.
- 1786, September: A great storm took place.
- 1786, October: A great storm took place.
- 1795, September: A storm destroys Carib crops, Moreau accompanies a group of Caribs on an overnight canoe trip to Trinidad with a supply of Spanish gold coins salted away after a shipwreck and which the Caribs use to buy food supplies and to charter three schooners to carry the supplies back to St Vincent. The Caribs operate perfectly happily within the money economy of the Caribbean. In addition, Moreau says, “Carib pirogues were constantly on the move between the mouth of the Orinoco and the islands of the Bahamas”, which meant they were well-informed about everything that was happening in the Caribbean. “They were [the Caribs]”, Moreau says, “Victor Hugues’ eyes and ears, the intelligence force for revolutionary insurgence”.
- 1814, Saint Vincent: Floods (1814-15) at Wallibu when the sand and ash dams in the Wallibu River, created by the 1812 and 1814 volcanic eruptions, broke free.
- 1815, Saint Vincent: Floods at Wallibu when the sand and ash dams in the Wallibu River, created by the 1814 volcanic eruptions, broke free.
- 1818, September 28th: Hurricane recorded, huge storm.
- 1831, August 11th, St.Vincent: Great Hurricane (known as Hurricane Barbado) recorded, lots of damage sustained in Saint Vincent. The islands damaged by this storm were Barbados, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Puerto Rico, Town of Auz Cayes, Haiti was nearly destroyed; St. Jago de Cuba; Havana; Martinique slightly touched. Up to 2500 lives were lost in total.
- 1831, December 3rd, Saint Vincent: Earthquake felt in Saint Vincent and through many areas of the Caribbean, very disturbed tsunami seas and flooding everywhere, substantially affecting most of the East Caribbean.
- 1837, July 10th: Major storm recorded.
- 1837, July 27th: Major storm reported
- 1838 –
- 1855, August 25th, Saint Vincent: A tropical storm with 69 mph winds hit the Island causing damage to crops and buildings.
- 1862, October 6th: A tropical storm with 58mph winds struck the Island, crop and building damage and flooding.
- 1867, November 18th, Saint Vincent: Effects of tsunami experienced, very high water and flooding.
- 1875, September 9th: Tropical system hits St. Vincent, a great flood occurred causing damage throughout the country, and in particular Kingstown.
- 1876, September 29th, Saint Vincent: A tropical storm with 58mph winds struck the Island, causing crop and building damage, and flooding.
- 1880, August 15th, Saint Vincent: A tropical storm blustered through the Island with winds of 46mph, some crop damage and minor building damage, flooding reported.
- 1886, August 13th, Saint Vincent: A Tropical storm with winds of 63mph, caused damage to crops and buildings and flooding.
- 1886, August 16th: Tropical weather system hits St.Vincent. Described in most records as a terrific cyclone (hurricane), was actually a Category Two Hurricane with 109mph winds, much damage to crops and buildings, and flooding.
- 1887, July 20th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, winds of 69mph, plenty of crop damage, some wooden buildings damaged, flooding.
- 1887, August 2nd, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm 52mph winds, freshly repaired buildings re-damaged, further crop damage and flooding.
- 1887, September 12th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm 63mph winds, boats damaged, crop and property damage, flooding.
- 1887, December 7th, Saint Vincent: An unexpected late Tropical Storm, winds of 46mph, a little more damage and devastation to a year of unprecedented and continual storms. The year had started with a drought and ended with a deluge of water.
- 1888, November 1st, Saint Vincent: A Tropical Storm occurred with 40mph winds, light damage to crops and buildings, plenty of rain and river flooding.
- 1891, October 12th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, winds of 40mph.
- 1893, September 12th, Saint Vincent: Terrific Thunderstorm, Damage to buildings and property by lightening.
- 1894, October 12th, Saint Vincent: Category 2 Hurricane, 98mph winds, serious damage to crops, homes and property, flooding.
- 1895, August 12th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm 52mph winds.
- 1895, September 6th, Saint Vincent: Thunderstorm, Telephone exchange struck and damaged by lightening.
- 1895, October 15th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 58mph winds.
- 1896, October 28th, Saint Vincent: Wide spread floods causing extensive damage to property and the loss of several lives.
- 1896, November 28th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 58mph winds. Georgetown flooded by heavy rain storms.
- 1897, October 9th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 46mph winds.
- 1897, November, Saint Vincent: Warrawarrou River flooded and overflows, through heavy rains.
- 1898, September 11th, St. Vincent: 109 mph hurricane.
- 1898, October 3rd, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 58mph winds.
- 1898, December 31st, Saint Vincent: Hurricane Relief Fund amounted to £28,187. 16s. 11p.
- 1901, July 3rd, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 40mph winds.
- 1901, August 20th: A savage 52mph Tropical Storm System hits St.Vincent. A South Westerly gale, considerable damage countrywide to most sea front properties, Kingstown Jetty and sailing boats destroyed.
- 1905, September 7th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 58mph winds
- 1915, September 22nd, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 52mph winds.
- 1916, July 12th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 40mph winds.
- 1916, August 13th, Saint Vincent: Tropical storm, 58mph winds.
- 1916, October 8th, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 52mph winds.
- 1918, August 1st, Saint Vincent: Tropical Storm, 40mph winds.
- 1921 Sept 8th, St. Vincent: 80mph from the S.E
- 1929, October 5th: Leeward Districts deluged by flood waters, causing considerable damage to property and the loss of livestock.
- 1937, October 16th: Tropical Storm, A man is struck dead by lightening at Cane Hall.
- 1954 October 5th, Saint Vincent: Hurricane Hazel hits just south with 80mph winds from the east.
- 1955 September 23rd, Saint Vincent: Hurricane Janet levels the area with 115mph winds press 28.90 .
- 1967, September 8th: Tropical Storm Beulah hits St. Vincent.
- 1969, December 25th: An earthquake felt and small tsunami and flooding recorded in Saint Vincent.
- 1977, October 18th: Kingstown and most other areas flooded by torrential rain.
- 1980 Hurricane Allen passes just north with 130mph winds on Aug 4th from the ESE
- 1981: Agricultural Production rebounded, after storm damage for three consecutive years.
- 1986, Tropical Storm Danielle spreads havoc and damage to St.Vincent.
- 1986, September 21st & 22nd, Kingstown and other areas flooded by heavy rains.
- 1992, November: Kingstown and most other areas flooded by Tropical Storm.
- 1994: Tropical storms wiped out substantial portions of crops.
- 1995: Tropical storms wiped out substantial portions of crops.
- 2002, September 24th: Tropical Storm unleashed a mudslide that buried a woman and three of her children in St. Vincent.
- 2002, September 30th: Hurricane Lilly hits St.Vincent and the Islands.
- 2004, September 14th, Tuesday, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: Hurricane Ivan swiped St.Vincent as it passed 70 miles south of the island. Wave heights from the hurricane reached 20 feet (6 m) along coastline of Saint Vincent, portions of which washed away 2 homes; the storm surge destroyed 19 homes and damaged 40 more; The Windward coast of St. Vincent and the Grenadines and the Southern Grenadines got the worst of Ivan. Georgetown, Colonaire, Langley Park suffered the loss of several board houses and damage to other structures near the sea. Other damage across the Country. Sea debris on the Windward Highway and the end of the airport had to be cleared. The winds left more than two-thirds of the island without power, and also damaged the island’s banana crop Damage in the country totalled US$40 million.
- 2008, September 20th: (NEMO)- Report; 2008 September 19th: As a result of the passage of a tropical wave, St Vincent and the Grenadines was drenched by heavy rains which resulted in one (1) death, island wide flooding and landslides which left many roads blocked. The heavy rains began at about 2.00am and continued for approximately the next twenty four hours. By 6.00am residents were reporting houses being flooded out, rivers overflowing bridges and landslides in several areas of the country. All schools were closed by midday on Friday.
- In the area of Ratho Mill, a huge retaining wall collapsed unto the Windward Highway resulting in complete blockage of the area. An operation was started to clear the road. Later it was reported that there may have been the possibility that a vehicle or vehicles were buried under several hundred tons of debris. What started as a clean-up operation was converted to a full scale Search and Rescue (SAR) operation. Heavy duty operators were unable to reach the wreckage until 7.00pm. A flattened car was removed its lone female occupant was pronounced dead by the Coroner who was at the scene.
- SAR operation continued until midnight when it was called off due to more rains and the unstable nature of the damaged walls that were left standing. The operation continued at day break. However, there were no more vehicles under the rubbles. A total of 25 landslides were reported and 11 blockages of roads. Ten houses were reported flooded on Friday and four remain under flood waters. One house was destroyed by a landslide and there were reports of scores of collapsed retaining walls.By midday Saturday September 20, 2008 most roads have been cleared or partially cleared. Assessment of the damaged roads and bridges are being undertaken. Damage assessment is also continuing in other areas to ascertain the full extent of impact of the rains.
- 2008, October, St. Vincent: Storm sea surges from hurricane Omar severely damaged the leeward [western coast] of St. Vincent and the Grenadines. There was widespread flooding, significant erosion and many coastal properties and businesses were destroyed. The Cruise Ship Terminal building in Kingstown received significant damage and all the businesses that are housed there had to be evacuated. Another 20 shops that were housed in the Bus Terminal were destroyed from this storm surge and several others had to be evacuated. The waters also damaged some vehicles and flooded several houses and one school. Approximately ten fishing boats were destroyed and several reportedly received significant damage.
- 2010 October 30th, Saint Vincent: Hurricane Tomas passes just north with 80mph winds while moving west causing quite a bit of damage with floods, landslides and sea surge.
- 2013, December 24th/25th: Tropical trough, severe flooding in all flood plains country wide.
That Buccament Bay Resort is built in a flood plain is a physical fact, there can be no debate.
Of course Harlequin would like to deny that its in a flood plain and in doing so deny the physical facts and also the findings and declarations of Geomorphology experts.
A floodplain or flood plain is an area of land adjacent to a stream or river that stretches from the banks of its channel to the base of the enclosing valley walls and experiences flooding during periods of high discharge. It includes the floodway, which consists of the stream channel and adjacent areas that actively carry flood flows downstream, and the flood fringe, which are areas inundated by the flood, but which do not experience a strong current. In other words, a floodplain is an area near a river or a stream which floods when the water level reaches flood stage.
See also: A. S., 2004, Encyclopedia of Geomorphology, vol. 1. Routledge, New York. ISBN 0-415-32737-7
I submit this article which I researched and have written from the results of such research.