Will Barbados National Insurance investment in the Four Seasons be lost?
“Of the 25 projects “In Construction” my projection is that only 9 will open within two years.”
… Caribbean hospitality industry expert Robert MacLellan
In his second major article for Barbados Free Press, Caribbean hospitality industry expert Robert MacLellan looks at the slate of unfinished and planned resort projects throughout the region – many of which were all too optimistically started during the 2007/2008 ‘bubble’. Here in Barbados we have our own selection of unfinished concrete bones bleaching in the sun, and there is much pressure to use public money to continue construction.
As I read Mr. MacLellan’s current article, I see that in some cases using public money might not be a wise move. In fact, it might be a predictable disaster and throwing good money after bad. I wish I had confidence that our elected and appointed public officials already know that the tourism business has forever changed and that they are making good plans to save viable resorts…
… but after reading Mr. MacLellan’s article I’m convinced that our leadership continues to fly by the seat of their pants – hoping for the best and basing their decisions on ‘feelings’ and what used to work.
This article, along with Mr. MacLellan’s previous offering Cruise ship industry a ‘Trojan horse’ to Caribbean small island economies, should be required reading at the Barbados Tourism Authority and for every Member of Parliament.
Caribbean Resort Development – Optimistic yet realistic outlook
by Robert MacLellan
This month’s Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Investment Conference (CHTIC) is promoted on the basis of predicted resort development growth across the region in 2012, but the actual situation is more complex and not as positive as first appears.
The leading travel research company in the States (STR) undertakes the great challenge of identifying and recording Caribbean hotel projects from the earliest development stages through to completion – the “pipeline”- a very difficult task, given the number of islands and jurisdictions in the region. However, with 80% of my work across the Caribbean over the last 15 years being development oriented, I felt qualified to further evaluate that pipeline. My research suggests that only 19 of the 69 projects, listed in the pipeline report, are likely to open within the next two years.
I believe that the 15 projects listed as “Abandoned” and “Deferred” are unlikely to be resurrected at all – at least, as previously envisaged. Within a two year window, I estimate that only 1 of 6 projects listed as in “Preplanning” , 5 of 12 in “ Planning” and 4 of 11 in “Final Planning” will make significant progress towards opening. Of the 25 projects “In Construction” my projection is that only 9 will open within two years. Continue reading