Tropical Storm Alert Barbados: 30% chance tropical cyclone next 48 hours

National Hurricane Center Alert: December 20, 2010 3:30pm EST

Keep your eyes and ears open for the next few days friends. The “well defined low” to the southeast might, or might not grow into a big boy.

It’s too bad that our Barbados Meteorological Department doesn’t have their Doppler Weather Radar up so we could have a look ourselves. That would keep folks interested in the weather and make for earlier warnings and independent actions by the populace.

Too bad that the acting director, Mr. Hampden Lovell, believes that Bajans aren’t intelligent enough to be given access to raw weather data.

NOAA Hurricane Center: Forecasters watching low-pressure system off Barbados

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17 Comments

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17 responses to “Tropical Storm Alert Barbados: 30% chance tropical cyclone next 48 hours

  1. John

    WOW.
    I doubt if the Martinique Radar has anything yet.

  2. John

    It is 275 miles east south east.

    If our Radar was working we would just be about seeing it coming into range now, 1:09 am.

    Martinique is showing clear as far as BArbados is concerned.

    Trinidad too.

    There is supposed to be lunar eclipse shortly but not sure if we can see it from Barbados.

    Also, today is the shortest day for the year.

    Neither may bear any relation to the weather.

    The range of the radar is 400 km which is 250 miles.

  3. you are not alone, here in western nova scotia, the busiest and most productive fishery in the world, 1000 boats out vitually every day of the year, we have no coverage either

  4. John

    Martinique Radar has it now.

    We’ll see what we get for lunch.

  5. John

    A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N57W…ABOUT 140 NM
    TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
    FROM 13N38W TO 13N50W…CURVING TO THE LOW CENTER…TO 8N60W
    NEAR THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN GUYANA. RAINSHOWERS
    ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N58W. OTHER DISORGANIZED
    ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
    THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.
    DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 10N
    TO 16N BETWEEN 36W AND 47W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
    MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
    THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
    TO MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO EVEN
    IF IT NEVER DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

  6. jovahni cheeseman

    Those in authority never seem to get it right. thank god we are educated enough to check for ourselves. By the way love the new bfp look

  7. Green Monkey

    Re. weather forecasting, here’s another example of how sometimes “out of the box” thinking brings better results:

    There’s a mini ice age coming, says man who beats weather experts

    Piers Corbyn not only predicted the current weather, but he believes things are going to get much worse, says Boris Johnson, London’s mayor

    SNIP

    Never mind the record low attained in Northern Ireland this weekend. I can’t remember a time when so much snow has lain so thickly on the ground, and we haven’t even reached Christmas. And this is the third tough winter in a row. Is it really true that no one saw this coming?

    Actually, they did. Allow me to introduce readers to Piers Corbyn, meteorologist and brother of my old chum, bearded leftie MP Jeremy. Piers Corbyn works in an undistinguished office in Borough High Street. He has no telescope or supercomputer. Armed only with a laptop, huge quantities of publicly available data and a first-class degree in astrophysics, he gets it right again and again.

    Back in November, when the Met Office was still doing its “mild winter” schtick, Corbyn said it would be the coldest for 100 years. Indeed, it was back in May that he first predicted a snowy December, and he put his own money on a white Christmas about a month before the Met Office made any such forecast. He said that the Met Office would be wrong about last year’s mythical “barbecue summer”, and he was vindicated. He was closer to the truth about last winter, too.

    He seems to get it right about 85 per cent of the time and serious business people – notably in farming – are starting to invest in his forecasts. In the eyes of many punters, he puts the taxpayer-funded Met Office to shame. How on earth does he do it? He studies the Sun.

    He looks at the flow of particles from the Sun, and how they interact with the upper atmosphere, especially air currents such as the jet stream, and he looks at how the Moon and other factors influence those streaming particles.

    He takes a snapshot of what the Sun is doing at any given moment, and then he looks back at the record to see when it last did something similar. Then he checks what the weather was like on Earth at the time – and he makes a prophecy.

    I have not a clue whether his methods are sound or not. But when so many of his forecasts seem to come true, and when he seems to be so consistently ahead of the Met Office, I feel I want to know more. Piers Corbyn believes that the last three winters could be the harbinger of a mini ice age that could be upon us by 2035, and that it could start to be colder than at any time in the last 200 years. He goes on to speculate that a genuine ice age might then settle in, since an ice age is now cyclically overdue.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/theres-a-mini-ice-age-coming-says-man-who-beats-weather-experts-20101221-1945a.html

  8. John

    Quite amazing to watch the movement of this system over the past 18 hours or so.

    First West with a hint of a North component and when it gets to Barbados all North.

    Will it go around Barbados and pass north of us instead of South as it appeared it would this morning?

    Maybe it is all to do with the Sun and the Moon!!

    It is little things like these that make some people claim “God is a bajan”.

  9. John

    According to Terrapin, the last tropical storm that passed within 100 miles of Barbados in December was in 1887, over 100 years ago.

    In 1888, we had one pass that close im November.

    Since then, never.

    http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayStorm.jsp?STORM=00271&dtype=JAVA

    A bit over a decade later was the 1898 hurricane and the 1901 .

    Maybe of no significance whatsoever.

  10. Green Monkey

    Link for Barbados weather radar images:

    http://www.barbadosweather.org/radarImagery.php

  11. David G. Brooks

    Well, Green Monkey beat me to it.

    I found out a little after midday today and have updated my website and announced it on my Facebook wall, and have been getting e-mails from around the Caribbean and North America with exhilaration and almost orgasmic delight at finally being able to see our Radar Imagery.

    Thanks Met. Office, a bit late but it is a very good start – I say that mainly because it offers much more then the other islands – but I guess if it wasn’t for Tomas most of us around here may still be being ignored.

  12. John

    Go David Go.

    Amazing what a few citizens can accomplish when they set their minds to it!!

    Congrats Met Office, thanks.

    Take a bow.

  13. John

    A small earthquake in England.

    I haven’t seen one of them from USGS since I signed on to receive notification of earthquakes worldwide.

    Looked on google earth and the lat lon is on top of a mountain.

    There is uncertainty in the accuracy of the position given so it might be a bit off.

    Nearby is Helvellyn Mountain.

    Magnitude 3.6 Ml
    Date-Time 21 Dec 2010 22:59:11 UTC
    21 Dec 2010 22:59:11 near epicenter
    21 Dec 2010 18:59:11 standard time in your timezone

    Location 54.485N 3.241W
    Depth 15 km
    Distances 51 km (31 miles) SSW (204 degrees) of Carlisle, England, UK
    89 km (55 miles) ENE (65 degrees) of Douglas, Isle of Man, UK
    120 km (74 miles) WSW (243 degrees) of Newcastle upon Tyne, England, UK
    235 km (146 miles) NE (56 degrees) of DUBLIN, Ireland

    Location Uncertainty Horizontal: 22.9 km; Vertical 11.7 km
    Parameters Nph = 17; Dmin = 92.4 km; Rmss = 1.28 seconds; Gp = 176°
    M-type = Ml; Version = 2
    Event ID US c0000sdh

  14. John

    Barbados looks clear on radar but check the satellite imagery.

    http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx

  15. David G. Brooks

    Oh, I forgot to mention though … still somewhat of a major issue with the Radar … it has NOT been properly calibrated as yet, they are using a generic or pre-set algorithm to render the imagery, so you still cannot ‘see’ everything you should be able to see.

    For instance, the Tropical Rainfall or more so the raindrops are significantly different (larger in particular) than in Temperate climes, so is the overall atmospheric sounding, so we have to wait on that aspect – I suppose that may be another battle.

    Also, you will notice a thin line stretching due west towards St. Vincent … that is caused by an obstruction of one of the tall antenna mast in the centre of the island but its a thin line.

    Also, and I feel more importantly are two sources of interference that leaves a swath to the South-East and another to the South (important sectors), which as range extends they get wider, being caused by the Regional Security Radars located at Ragged/East Point and South Point. These radars evidently and obviously flood the Doppler Radar at Castle Grant with UHF/SHF RF and cause a blind spot, which could effectively hide an eye-wall at medium to long range.

    Not sure how the Telecommunications authorities allowed this to happen. Does the interference go the other way too, well it does, but it depends on the receiving equipment, etc. how it is configured and for what use, that would dictate how serious. My guess that a fast moving plane or boat may not be an issue for the Security people, but I would think a slow moving hurricane would. Who gives way, as in, shuts off if really needed … will they cooperate, etc.

  16. Pingback: Barbados Storm Photos | Pafos Photos

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