A few days ago we published Cricket World Cup Organiser Says “A Decade Until CWC Benefits Are Seen”. Now our old friend Adrian Loveridge takes this one step further and compares projected CWC revenues with standard rates of inflation.
If I were starting a new business, I would want Adrian on side as a reality check. A pity the government doesn’t hire him as one of their consultants. God knows he would only be one of dozens on the payroll – but he would actually add value.
Take it away, Adrian…
I was intrigued by a sentence quoted in an article that was published on 18th February 2007, under a banner head ‘Huge CWC benefits in 10 years’.
It said ‘the numbers have indicated that the economic benefits are more than one billion dollars, he (Vancourt Rouse) said’.
Currently we are told our annual total earnings from tourism is around $1.7 billion.
Depending on which report you read, the current level of inflation is 8%, so unless you increase your revenue earnings over and above this figure, then you are effectively falling behind.
An increase in spending over a ten year period of $1 billion would only relate to an annual growth in tourism earnings of a little more than 5% per year.
And that figure is almost meaningless unless inflation is kept below that level.
From a marketing point of point, the level of media coverage should hopefully raise the destination profile of Barbados, worldwide.
But unless this is converted into actual bookings or first time visitors are transformed into repeat long stay visitors, the legacy benefit and justification for the vast amounts spent are speculative at best.
With the vast majority of cricket fans being accommodated on cruise ships, it is vital that a plan is put in place to entice these people back for a longer and more profitable stay.
Adrian Loveridge
22 February 2007
26 Comments
February 23, 2007 at 4:16 am
Calculating the long term economic impact of this event is not an exact science because it is difficult to isolate those benefits accruing directly from the event.
As for the long term benefit, you could calculate the net present value of future cash flows (bringing them back to 2007 dollars) and subtract from that everything that was spent on the event.
Assuming $300 million was spent on the event, and it yields $100 million a year for ten years and assuming inflation at 8% (this is high, more likely to be 3 – 4% long term), would yield a net present value of $301 million.
February 23, 2007 at 4:39 am
If what Adrian L. says is true, and I’m sure it is, that a “vast majority of cricket fans” are going to be here on cruise ships to watch cricket, it sounds like a slap in the face for local hoteliers.
Unless local hotels are completely filled- which he has mentioned, they don’t appear to be.
It seemed like a good idea to take any OVERFLOW onto cruise ships acting as offshore hotels; but it was never intended, surely, that they would compete with them?
If there are 3,500 hotel rooms on the island, and we are hoping for 30,000 cricket visitors, it does stand to reason that room for 25,000 fans is needed on the cruise ships.
Adrian L. talks of a marketing plan being needed to convert these off-shore visitors into future on-shore ones, but that surely should have been done long ago. It can’t be done at the last minute. This means we shall have to rely on the natural appeal of Bridgetown (?) to bring them back. They are here to watch cricket, not tour the island.
And even if these visitors wanted to tour the island and relax on the beaches, do we have the infrastructure to facilitate this “surge” (as the current buzzword goes) of tourists over peak cruise ship numbers. If nothing else the fine beaches of Carlisle Bay and Brighton are within walking distance, just about, from the harbour.
But there won’t be extra taxis or buses available for this short term excess. And even with the wisdom of hindsight, I can’t imagine what the Tourist Board would have done to get the cricket fans to so like our island they would come back. Free concerts in Pelican Village, perhaps?
February 23, 2007 at 6:23 am
This is my first contribution to BFP. Hitherto, I have resisted the desire to present myself as a universal critic, but it has not been easy to keep my mouth shut in the face of a clear lack of forward planning by those who comprise the Barbados LOC. This is against a personal experience of nearly 40 years of national, regional, and international public service.
One issue that ha intrigued me is how the “fuh cup” officials have done their calculations. I am not sure that Rosenstein Rodan would have approved of the “big push” approach to CWC 2007 that has been taken, but I am sure that Errol Barrow would not.
There is a lot more that I could say but I shall hold my fire, for now.
February 23, 2007 at 8:39 am
Price inflation is one factor that reduces yields, and devaluation of the dollar is another. These days, subtracting these two factors from project yield might well result in a real, negative yield.
February 23, 2007 at 12:03 pm
Speaking of devaluation of the (local) Dollar
I say that is already de facto done.
Just see what it gets you in the supermarkets!
February 23, 2007 at 12:12 pm
I think Linch the GoB and/or the LOC did cannot justify the expenditure spent thus far on numbers. I suspect the decision to host the CWC2007 was driven by sentiment first and cost justification last. It is often said that in Banana Republics a good way for people in certain position to make quick loot is to create capital projects. There is no doubt in my mind whether it be, GEMS, CWC and the others we have have been discussing clearly fit the bill. Who can reasonably expect that Barbados stand to benefit from increase tourist arrivals from India, Pakistan, S.Africa, Australia, Sri Lanka etc. Lets get real who is going to travel on a plane for almost a day with stops along the way to get to Barbados?
The only good thing I see coming out of hosting the CWC is the infrastructual improvement which has/is taking place.
February 23, 2007 at 2:20 pm
There are a few good things coming out of this fiasco and they are the opportunity for the PM and few of his close friends to put away some warm dollars, for Lynch to earn a draw back from Carnival for the two lots of money he has paid to them to the tune of US $ 18. Mill, for them to carry out the Bridgetown redevelopment project with Bostic at the helm and giveaway our hard earned taxpayers dollars to secure his seat, for the mighty Mia to screw up the Visa situation so badly that who knows how many will actually make the trip to the caribbean at all, for the cruise ships to dump their garbage in our prestine Caribbean waters while snatching up the possible bookings that the hotels could have had meanwhile we will have partly filled hotels on island, for us to loose the culture of going to cricket in the Caribbean way music,f ood and entertainment to be replace by the international flair that has no connection to anything Caribbean or West Indian.
I cannot wait for the day that the sunsets on this sunset legalization.
Lets look at this project carefully they are spending $ 300 mill of which $ 50 mill is being spent on security???? come on give me a break who is involved in this security scam?? any of them in of the inner circle of the PM’s close friends?
February 23, 2007 at 2:34 pm
“Lets look at this project carefully they are spending $ 300 mill of which $ 50 mill is being spent on security???? come on give me a break who is involved in this security scam?? ”
Could it be a leaky cockie, or a cocky leekie?
February 23, 2007 at 3:06 pm
Does anyone know what the common threat is when these names are put together-: Washington, Johnson, Nicholls, Arthur??
Bet you would never guess.
February 23, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Wishing, do not keep us in suspense, tell us!
February 23, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Who is the head of black entertainment TV?
February 23, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Robert Johnson right?
February 23, 2007 at 7:20 pm
Johnson the head of Black entertainment TV, Washington the biggest slot machine man in the USA, Nicholls the biggest facilitator and go between man in the Barbadian market remeber him? The one that collects a commission of every , Arthur the PM the one granting the permit well these are all connected in the importation of the newly granted permit to operate the newly added 1000 slot machines on the island more than doubling the previous number allowed to operate here.
The man running the show is the American Washington with others all closely linked with him, this is an absolute disgrace indeed. what these people will do to line their pockets is unreal.
February 23, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Did not Mr Robert Washington sell his interest in BET.
Is this the same Robert Washington that has a substantial (or controlling) interest in Leeward Islands Lottery Company Inc., and is this the company that operates (our) lottery, ie: the Caribbean Lotto?
Are audited accounts available for this company and if so where can you acess them?
Just asking?
February 23, 2007 at 7:56 pm
Adrian you have nailed it and these are the same ones now about to operate the additional 1000 slot machines now coming into the island
February 23, 2007 at 8:00 pm
LILHCo directors Robert B. Washington, Jr., Chairman and CEO; Robert L. Johnson, founder and CEO of Black Entertainment Television; and attorney Johnnie L. Cochran, Jr. are expected to continue to serve on the LILHCo board.
“This acquisition will enable GTECH to provide improved technology, efficiency, and flexibility for LILHCo’s existing lottery customers, as well as potential new customers,” said LILHCo Chairman and CEO Robert Washington.
GTECH currently operates lotteries in Barbados , Jamaica , Puerto Rico , and Trinidad & Tobago, and is developing a complete video lottery solution for The National Lotteries Control Board and The Betting Levy Board in Trinidad & Tobago.
February 23, 2007 at 8:07 pm
little guy goes to jail ( and what a special place that is ), and the big-ups get relected or attach themselves to the next set of bandits.
Meanwhile this is all supported by a legal system that has been created in the same way. You scratch my back and I will make sure everything is protected by years of delay, legal “interpretation” and decisions of “fact” in face of the most blatantly fraudulent practices placed before these judges.
February 23, 2007 at 8:14 pm
These are all the same ones who are involved with the importation of the 1000 slot machines into the island to be operated by the americans and managed by Nicholls et al
February 23, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Does Barbados allow Casinos?
Is there no law against this?
February 24, 2007 at 1:13 am
Barbados is a de facto Casino.
Public Slot machines in Bridgetown,Sunset Crest and Warrens.
February 24, 2007 at 3:35 am
Mike- I am wryly amused by your quotation stating
“GTECH is … currently developing a complete video lottery SOLUTION” for Trinidad & Tobago.
Like its a ticklish problem to get Trinis to throw more money away gambling? Considerate of GTECH to offer a solution for them.
February 24, 2007 at 10:01 am
Yes, as per the Oxford English Dictionary, Barbados has Casinos, although some have managed to convince the many that we do not.
Casino is a public room for gambling, per the dictionary. We have many.
However, as with many things, by controlling the issue and not laying clear guidelines out, clear means of application and set up of an operation, the industry may be controlled by a few.
The cynical person may think that this was intentional to ensure the few do not become threatened by major foreign chains coming in and taking their business.
Although if a major foreign chain such as Trump came it would actually also put in a multi billion hotel to go with the casino, while the ‘few’ who currently have control are not (unless these too are behind much condo development etc, which does NOT have the same attraction as a multibillion complex).
It really is quite something.
I have only one further thing to say on this.
Material accumulation is a futile undertaking, you cannot take it with you and we all have to move on eventually with only the additional experience gained here as souls with us.
Peace.
February 27, 2007 at 12:41 am
This extract below is taken from the Jamaican Observer.
The full link is given :
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html/20070225T190000-0500_119652_OBS_I_FORGIVE_YOU__SISTER_.asp
“When poor people can’t get medication in the hospitals, when there are not enough beds, when the roads are not fixed, the youth can get no employment, and over $8 billion is being used to throw on World Cup? Something is wrong. We must speak out as Christians, no matter who is involved,” Bennett said.
———————————————
Where is the voice of the church in Barbados ?
Don’t we face similar issues here ?
Or is it, because Rev Atherley is part of the government, he don’t CARE…?
March 28, 2007 at 9:27 pm
every thing that you are talk is crap because i was searching for benefits in Jamaica but you guys are talking about some foolish thing you guys just chat too much………………………
March 28, 2007 at 9:35 pm
But a one thing alone mi like wi you guys say is that about 1 billion dollars that the government use you guys just too nough you guys need to mine you own business leave jamaica so we the Government can do our think you guys need to mine your own business and leave the jamaica society to do our thing
March 28, 2007 at 11:41 pm
Alright then, Dillon wha a you Jamaica ting den bredda? Nuh?